Tuesday, April 28, 2009

ICEBERGS AHEAD

Check out this short post from iStockAnalyst (H/T Ritholtz) about the composition of the Fed's balance sheet, as discussed here last week. A highlight or two:
[A]ll of this garbage paper that’s going bad — the troubled residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), the commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), the asset backed securities (ABS), the Fannie Mae bonds, the corporate loans, and so on — hasn’t just gone “Poof.”

Instead, more and more of it has been landing on the Fed’s doorstep — either through direct ownership or as collateral against Fed loans that keep getting rolled over.

The result? The Fed’s once pristine balance sheet is starting to look more and more like the balance sheet of a troubled financial institution.

What do I mean? Well, take a look at this April 26, 2007, Federal Reserve Statistical Release. Table 2, the Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks, shows the breakdown of the Fed’s assets back then. You’ll see that the Fed banks listed total assets of $883.5 billion at the time. The lion’s share of those assets — $787.1 billion, or 89 percent — were “AAA” quality U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. There were a few other assorted line items (gold, bank premises, etc.) … but that’s about it.

Now compare that two-year old balance sheet, to this multi-headed hydra of a balance sheet that came out a few days ago. The equivalent table (number 9) shows that total Fed assets have exploded to $2.19 TRILLION. And those plain-vanilla, risk-free Treasuries? They make up just $526.1 billion, or 24 percent, of Fed assets!

The Fed now also owns more than $355 billion of mortgage backed securities and $61 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Term auction credit comes to $455.8 billion. Those are short-term loans against just about anything and everything — from auto loans and credit card receivables to Brady Bonds and CMBS.

The Fed is also holding $238 billion in commercial paper as part of an October 2008 program to help corporations fund short-term debt obligations.

And it has $111 billion in so-called “other loans.” This all-purpose category includes loans made to primary dealers ($12.9 billion), bailout baby AIG ($45.1 billion), and loans made as part of the Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility ($5.1 billion).

Finally, the Fed has lent money to so-called “Maiden Lane” LLCs that acquired dodgy asset portfolios as part of the Bear Stearns and AIG bailouts. The grand total there comes to $72 billion.

* * *

I recommend you consider buying some gold and dump the heck out of any long-term U.S. bonds. Because some day, the trashing of the Fed’s balance sheet is going to matter, and in a potentially huge way.

Not sure there's much I can add to that.

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1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey

the fed buys with zero real cost dollars

yes opportunity cost remains

so its an intelligent question to ask


why buy toxic shit??
the theory is by
off loading the stuff
the corporate credit system will revive

the fed could eat all the shit
it wants to
and pay good dollars for em

the tax ??

price level effects
of a larger money stock

if prices are in decline
maybe that isn't even a negative consequence
certainly not
as much as if prices are already in upcline
which they are not

debtor class rules eh ???

recall
corporate leaverage
is the driver
behind debtor class clout

the system is too self producing
to validate simple home spun reasoning or virtues

10:42 AM  

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