PEDRO & GLAVINE, THE REST I AIN'T HAVIN'
Another tough weekend for the boys. A Friday Night game in Milwaukee against Dave Bush should've been Miller Time. Instead it was Lima Time. Please tell me I'm dreaming. Tell me the 2006 Mets haven't gotten two starts from Jose Lima. Please.
At 23-14, they're still playing well, and the Phils hot streak can't continue at this rate. If it does, then I'll be introducing this as "Ladies & Gentlemen, your second-place NY Mets . . ." next week. After their 8-2 start in one-run games, the Mets've gone 2-2 in those situations, with both the clutch hitting and the bullpen taking some lumps.
That's how it goes. You always have to assume a .500 record in one-run games going forward. You hope your team exceeeds this, but you can't count on it. Anyway, the Mets have been "one-run game lucky" thus far, but exceeding their "expected" 21.5-15.5 record by only 1 1/2 games, they've actually given back 1 1/2 somewhere: since they're 3 games ahead of their expected W/L in one-run games, you'd expect them to outperform Pythagoras by the same amount. But that's why they play 162 games. You see, folks, a baseball season's like a marath--
Don't worry. I won't go there. On to the Random Thoughts:
1. Pitching Matchups Should be Favorable: On Friday night, with Jose "How the Hell am I in a Contending Team's Rotation?" Lima struggling in the pivotal 5th inning, Willie mismanaged things. Having already gotten 4 innings out of Lima on house money, someone should've been soft-tossing to start the inning. Among those who should not have been tossing would be Aaron Heilman. Because he should have started the damn game, but the Met brain trust seems not to view that as a viable option for some reason.
So, men on 1st & 2nd, Bill Hall smacked a base hit, and Wright made a sweet, backhanded short-hop cut-off of Floyd's throw, diving back towards third to tag Brady Clark, inexplicably allowed to round third by Dale Sveum, who looks well on his way cementing the unlikely title of "Worst Third Base Coach in Baseball History." Everyone's got a role in life; this seems to be Dale's.
Anyway, the play at third was close. I'm not gonna get into one of those annoying whinefests-disguised-as-analysis regarding whether it was the right call. Good calls, bad calls: part of the game, and like one-run record, you expect them to even out by September. But I know that with his pitcher running on Lima Beans, and the bullpen guys hurrying to get ready, Randolph should've been out their at least pretending to argue the call. He could've gained 5 minutes of warm-up time.
It Was a No Brainer!
Meanwhile, Willie didn't come out to argue, Darren Oliver remained in the pen with Chad Bradford, and Geoff Jenkins laced an opposite field gapper off Lima to clear the bases. Ugghhh. And Jenkins's splits vs. lefties & righties? Not huge, but a significant advantage versus righties.
Lima's? The only split I care about is pre- and post-1999. This man no longer belongs in the majors. Yet Heath Bell (who also looked poor, I'll admit) goes back to Virginia, while Lima stays in Queens. Yikes. There's nothing else to say.
2. Jorge Who?: Forget the world famous "Jorge Julio Counter." Darren Oliver has now yielded 5 home runs in 16 2/3 innings of work. With two guys giving up homers at a greater rate than Ken Dixon in 1987, we find Reason # 17 why Lima's presense is not only counterproductive, but utterly superfluous.
And, yeah, you really should check out Dixon's '87 numbers. There's a reason the balls flew out at a record pace that year.
3. It Came From The Deep: The Kazzer looks like a fish when he's at the plate: bulging eyes, mouth agape, neck muscles twitching like gills. Unfortunately, undersea creature routine and fine glovework at second notwithstanding, he's once again putting up typically Matshitty numbers: 265/299/361. He's too undisciplined at the plate, and bails out too often with his left-handed swing. When he bats lefty, he looks like his countryman Ichiro with that open stance and running swing. The swing, though, is the only similarity.
4. Randolph Pushing Floyd Over a Cliff?: I don't believe it, but you wonder sometimes. Well, at least I wonder sometimes. Maybe Willie wants to move Cliff to the bench, to make room for a younger guy (or for 39 year-old Jose Valentin. It's not clear which at this point). Maybe he hates Cliff, I don't know.
All I do know is that following a decent 2-for-4 with a walk in Friday night's Lima Time fiasco, Floyd was promoted to a seat next to his boss. Then on Sunday, Floyd pinch hit in the 10th against Jorge DeLaRosa, a lefty. Admittedly, DeLaRosa's numbers against lefties are no great shakes (and his shakes against righties aren't too impressive either), but Willie seems profoundly uninterested in getting Floyd out of his rut.
In case your TV screen doesn't go low enough to display Cliff's numbers against lefties, let me update you: 100/182/150 as of his appearence in the on-deck circle. Needless to say, those numbers have now dipped below the Pedro Line: 095/174/143. I don't even have a joke. I didn't know hitting stats could go that low, figuring maybe once a guy's average dipped below .100, they just rounded up. Like little league games that are called once the score goes to 21-0, or some equally humiliating tally.
And yes, in the 10th, against lefty DeLaRosa, Julio Franco was available.
5. Wright's D is Wrong: I know they're not moving him to another position (as they will eventually, I'm sure), and I'd fling myself from a tall building if they traded him, but man are his late inning fielding shenanigans getting tough to take or what? I don't know what more to say about this.
6. Give Me Pitcher's Slugging Percentage Against, or Give me Death: Remember back in the late-80s, when only the Tuesday & Wednesday USA Today included doubles, triples, walks and caught stealing, let alone calculated OBP & SLG, in its season stats? 15 years later? Standard, in every paper and on every web page.
Almost. Some stat pages still neglect to include walks, while showing strikeouts and steals. But most have gotten in line here. Well, I think it's now time for "default" pitching stats that include doubles, triples, and HBP. And, what the hell, lets get GB/FB and GIDP data too.
How many times have you seen an unfamiliar pitcher come into the game with this sort of line: 21 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 17 K . . . and a 4.79 ERA? Happens all the time. And, geeky baseball fan that I am, I immediately set to wondering what gives: a lot of HBPs, an Oliveresque 6 HRs in those 21 innings, 5 2B and 2 3B mixed in with the 18 hits? Inquiring minds wanna know!
Let's make this happen, MLB, ok? I'm aware of Baseball's unique, de facto strategy of promoting its product by alienating and angering its entire fan base as often as possible. But maybe they've learned to throw a bone or two once in a while. Comprehensive pitcher's stats before the decade's up. Let's go.
7. Twenty-sided Dice Owners Unite!: Speaking of geeky baseball fans, how's about Keith calling former teammate and fellow Gold Glover, Willie McGee, "a 1 in strat-O-matic" on Friday Night? Correctly identifying the social patheticness of the Mets Friday Night Viewers, Hernandez demonstrated that veteran's savvy we all loved in his playing days, and busted out the uber-nerd reference.
Suffice to say, back during freshman year at college, I, too, knew that McGee, along with Dwayne Murphy & Gary Pettis, were "ones" in CF. Yes, that's right, I said college. No, I didn't get laid too often freshman year. Let's move on, shall we . . .
8. A Valentine to Jose: Yeah, I know I've ragged on him without mercy all season, and I'll probably get back to it, like the chore that it is, after his next bases loaded double play grounder (you know it's coming, admit it), but for the time, that was a helluva performance this weekend, lacing line drives and flashing a good glove. I'm a fan. I can have more than one opinion. And they're all correct.
And the fact that he's on the roster while Milledge & Diaz dine at the Norfolk Applebee's just ain't right.
9. Feast or Famine: Pedro (who looks to be feasting quite a bit these days, by the way. Perhaps he ate Nelson DeLaRosa) has arrived at a fascinating point in his career. He's in such complete control of his weird arsenal of pitches, that it's all-but impossible for hitters to make solid contact when he's "pitching," when he's working the corners. His ball darts all over the hitting zone, diving and careening in bizarre directions. His 62 Ks and 30 hits allowed in 53 2/3 IP testify to that. But, because he no longer has any gas on his fastball, when he gets behind and needs to throws strikes, guy tattoo him. He's yielded 8 HRs in those 53+ innings (and plenty of doubles too. I'd give you those numbers if I could. But, nooooooooo, that's not an official stat). He continues to pitch well, so I'm not that concerned with the long balls, but Pedro has essentially turned into the Pitching Inverse of Rob Deer.
Or something like that. And finally . . .
10. A Man Who Does Throw Gas: You knew this was coming. Didn't you? Willie blew it on Friday night in another way. Despite the blowout status thrust upon us after the clock struck Lima Time, Randolph at least had the chance to bring in Jorge Julio to face a Brewer team that does little save strike out or go yard (Rob Deer's first team? Well, actually the Giants. But his greatest seasons came in . . . that's right). The Perfect Storm was ready to make landfall off Lake . . . uhh, whichever great lake Milwaukee sits on. A two homer, two wild pitch, four strikeout inning was well within our grasp. Willie even had Big George warming in the 7th inning. Met loss notwithstanding, I was prepared to sleep well.
And then he brought in Billy Wagner. To "get him some work." Jeez, Louise, can we get this man a copy of the manager's handbook? If he'd brought him in, as required, last Tuesday, to face Utley & Abreu, not only might the Mets have pulled that game out, leaving them 3 games up on the Phils at this point, but Julio could've thrown Friday night!!! Perspective. A manager needs perspective. And of course, the situation grew more serious Sunday, when Chad Bradford allowed Hall's game-winning homer.
Yes, in case you're unsure, that would be the same Chad Bradford that is not a flame-throwing lefty, signed for stupendous amounts of money to pitch in close games the Mets need to win (nor does he play one on television, as yesterday's game makes clear). Now, we'll never really know if we're just witnessing Willie's orthodox adherance to the LaRussa Bullpen Management Rule 2(a): "Never bring in your 'set-up guy' or your 'closer' during a tie game on the road." Or is 2(a), "Never bring your "closer" into a tie game in a ballpark serving good Brats"? Who can keep this stuff straight?
If I can briefly toot my own horn here, let me note that 6 minutes before Hall went deep in the 10th yesterday, at 5:32 PM, EDT, I jotted down the following, so I'd remember what I wanted to write this morning: "Wagner not in last Tues., in Friday (for work) & then Saturday - he should have been in in the 10th - Willie with the 'Bullpen Rules.'" Now, I'll readily admit, if I reported everything I jotted down you'd conclude not only that I'm a poor prognasticator, but dangerously insane as well. Plus, what's up with that "been in in the 10th" thing? But the point is, we all knew Wagner should have been available to pitch yesterday. But he was not available, having pitched in both Saturday's big win . . . and in Friday's blowout loss.
Had Willie played it differently, different things would have happened, and who knows how it have turned out. But we know how it turned out this past week, and it wasn't good. And that's what happens when managers make poor decisions. Even if they escape the immediate consequences of those moves (read: a loss), they still may pay a few games later. Willie's incorrect decision to keep Wagner out of last Tuesday's game had a negative effect both short-term and long.
The Mets are winning and winning tends to make for good "managerial moves: and losses make for the opposite. But ya know what? Willie's gotta tighten up in this regard.
And no, this isn't lingering disappointment that Julio didn't get in the game. Well, not just lingering disappointment.
At 23-14, they're still playing well, and the Phils hot streak can't continue at this rate. If it does, then I'll be introducing this as "Ladies & Gentlemen, your second-place NY Mets . . ." next week. After their 8-2 start in one-run games, the Mets've gone 2-2 in those situations, with both the clutch hitting and the bullpen taking some lumps.
That's how it goes. You always have to assume a .500 record in one-run games going forward. You hope your team exceeeds this, but you can't count on it. Anyway, the Mets have been "one-run game lucky" thus far, but exceeding their "expected" 21.5-15.5 record by only 1 1/2 games, they've actually given back 1 1/2 somewhere: since they're 3 games ahead of their expected W/L in one-run games, you'd expect them to outperform Pythagoras by the same amount. But that's why they play 162 games. You see, folks, a baseball season's like a marath--
Don't worry. I won't go there. On to the Random Thoughts:
1. Pitching Matchups Should be Favorable: On Friday night, with Jose "How the Hell am I in a Contending Team's Rotation?" Lima struggling in the pivotal 5th inning, Willie mismanaged things. Having already gotten 4 innings out of Lima on house money, someone should've been soft-tossing to start the inning. Among those who should not have been tossing would be Aaron Heilman. Because he should have started the damn game, but the Met brain trust seems not to view that as a viable option for some reason.
So, men on 1st & 2nd, Bill Hall smacked a base hit, and Wright made a sweet, backhanded short-hop cut-off of Floyd's throw, diving back towards third to tag Brady Clark, inexplicably allowed to round third by Dale Sveum, who looks well on his way cementing the unlikely title of "Worst Third Base Coach in Baseball History." Everyone's got a role in life; this seems to be Dale's.
Anyway, the play at third was close. I'm not gonna get into one of those annoying whinefests-disguised-as-analysis regarding whether it was the right call. Good calls, bad calls: part of the game, and like one-run record, you expect them to even out by September. But I know that with his pitcher running on Lima Beans, and the bullpen guys hurrying to get ready, Randolph should've been out their at least pretending to argue the call. He could've gained 5 minutes of warm-up time.
It Was a No Brainer!
Meanwhile, Willie didn't come out to argue, Darren Oliver remained in the pen with Chad Bradford, and Geoff Jenkins laced an opposite field gapper off Lima to clear the bases. Ugghhh. And Jenkins's splits vs. lefties & righties? Not huge, but a significant advantage versus righties.
Lima's? The only split I care about is pre- and post-1999. This man no longer belongs in the majors. Yet Heath Bell (who also looked poor, I'll admit) goes back to Virginia, while Lima stays in Queens. Yikes. There's nothing else to say.
2. Jorge Who?: Forget the world famous "Jorge Julio Counter." Darren Oliver has now yielded 5 home runs in 16 2/3 innings of work. With two guys giving up homers at a greater rate than Ken Dixon in 1987, we find Reason # 17 why Lima's presense is not only counterproductive, but utterly superfluous.
And, yeah, you really should check out Dixon's '87 numbers. There's a reason the balls flew out at a record pace that year.
3. It Came From The Deep: The Kazzer looks like a fish when he's at the plate: bulging eyes, mouth agape, neck muscles twitching like gills. Unfortunately, undersea creature routine and fine glovework at second notwithstanding, he's once again putting up typically Matshitty numbers: 265/299/361. He's too undisciplined at the plate, and bails out too often with his left-handed swing. When he bats lefty, he looks like his countryman Ichiro with that open stance and running swing. The swing, though, is the only similarity.
4. Randolph Pushing Floyd Over a Cliff?: I don't believe it, but you wonder sometimes. Well, at least I wonder sometimes. Maybe Willie wants to move Cliff to the bench, to make room for a younger guy (or for 39 year-old Jose Valentin. It's not clear which at this point). Maybe he hates Cliff, I don't know.
All I do know is that following a decent 2-for-4 with a walk in Friday night's Lima Time fiasco, Floyd was promoted to a seat next to his boss. Then on Sunday, Floyd pinch hit in the 10th against Jorge DeLaRosa, a lefty. Admittedly, DeLaRosa's numbers against lefties are no great shakes (and his shakes against righties aren't too impressive either), but Willie seems profoundly uninterested in getting Floyd out of his rut.
In case your TV screen doesn't go low enough to display Cliff's numbers against lefties, let me update you: 100/182/150 as of his appearence in the on-deck circle. Needless to say, those numbers have now dipped below the Pedro Line: 095/174/143. I don't even have a joke. I didn't know hitting stats could go that low, figuring maybe once a guy's average dipped below .100, they just rounded up. Like little league games that are called once the score goes to 21-0, or some equally humiliating tally.
And yes, in the 10th, against lefty DeLaRosa, Julio Franco was available.
5. Wright's D is Wrong: I know they're not moving him to another position (as they will eventually, I'm sure), and I'd fling myself from a tall building if they traded him, but man are his late inning fielding shenanigans getting tough to take or what? I don't know what more to say about this.
6. Give Me Pitcher's Slugging Percentage Against, or Give me Death: Remember back in the late-80s, when only the Tuesday & Wednesday USA Today included doubles, triples, walks and caught stealing, let alone calculated OBP & SLG, in its season stats? 15 years later? Standard, in every paper and on every web page.
Almost. Some stat pages still neglect to include walks, while showing strikeouts and steals. But most have gotten in line here. Well, I think it's now time for "default" pitching stats that include doubles, triples, and HBP. And, what the hell, lets get GB/FB and GIDP data too.
How many times have you seen an unfamiliar pitcher come into the game with this sort of line: 21 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 17 K . . . and a 4.79 ERA? Happens all the time. And, geeky baseball fan that I am, I immediately set to wondering what gives: a lot of HBPs, an Oliveresque 6 HRs in those 21 innings, 5 2B and 2 3B mixed in with the 18 hits? Inquiring minds wanna know!
Let's make this happen, MLB, ok? I'm aware of Baseball's unique, de facto strategy of promoting its product by alienating and angering its entire fan base as often as possible. But maybe they've learned to throw a bone or two once in a while. Comprehensive pitcher's stats before the decade's up. Let's go.
7. Twenty-sided Dice Owners Unite!: Speaking of geeky baseball fans, how's about Keith calling former teammate and fellow Gold Glover, Willie McGee, "a 1 in strat-O-matic" on Friday Night? Correctly identifying the social patheticness of the Mets Friday Night Viewers, Hernandez demonstrated that veteran's savvy we all loved in his playing days, and busted out the uber-nerd reference.
Suffice to say, back during freshman year at college, I, too, knew that McGee, along with Dwayne Murphy & Gary Pettis, were "ones" in CF. Yes, that's right, I said college. No, I didn't get laid too often freshman year. Let's move on, shall we . . .
8. A Valentine to Jose: Yeah, I know I've ragged on him without mercy all season, and I'll probably get back to it, like the chore that it is, after his next bases loaded double play grounder (you know it's coming, admit it), but for the time, that was a helluva performance this weekend, lacing line drives and flashing a good glove. I'm a fan. I can have more than one opinion. And they're all correct.
And the fact that he's on the roster while Milledge & Diaz dine at the Norfolk Applebee's just ain't right.
9. Feast or Famine: Pedro (who looks to be feasting quite a bit these days, by the way. Perhaps he ate Nelson DeLaRosa) has arrived at a fascinating point in his career. He's in such complete control of his weird arsenal of pitches, that it's all-but impossible for hitters to make solid contact when he's "pitching," when he's working the corners. His ball darts all over the hitting zone, diving and careening in bizarre directions. His 62 Ks and 30 hits allowed in 53 2/3 IP testify to that. But, because he no longer has any gas on his fastball, when he gets behind and needs to throws strikes, guy tattoo him. He's yielded 8 HRs in those 53+ innings (and plenty of doubles too. I'd give you those numbers if I could. But, nooooooooo, that's not an official stat). He continues to pitch well, so I'm not that concerned with the long balls, but Pedro has essentially turned into the Pitching Inverse of Rob Deer.
Or something like that. And finally . . .
10. A Man Who Does Throw Gas: You knew this was coming. Didn't you? Willie blew it on Friday night in another way. Despite the blowout status thrust upon us after the clock struck Lima Time, Randolph at least had the chance to bring in Jorge Julio to face a Brewer team that does little save strike out or go yard (Rob Deer's first team? Well, actually the Giants. But his greatest seasons came in . . . that's right). The Perfect Storm was ready to make landfall off Lake . . . uhh, whichever great lake Milwaukee sits on. A two homer, two wild pitch, four strikeout inning was well within our grasp. Willie even had Big George warming in the 7th inning. Met loss notwithstanding, I was prepared to sleep well.
And then he brought in Billy Wagner. To "get him some work." Jeez, Louise, can we get this man a copy of the manager's handbook? If he'd brought him in, as required, last Tuesday, to face Utley & Abreu, not only might the Mets have pulled that game out, leaving them 3 games up on the Phils at this point, but Julio could've thrown Friday night!!! Perspective. A manager needs perspective. And of course, the situation grew more serious Sunday, when Chad Bradford allowed Hall's game-winning homer.
Yes, in case you're unsure, that would be the same Chad Bradford that is not a flame-throwing lefty, signed for stupendous amounts of money to pitch in close games the Mets need to win (nor does he play one on television, as yesterday's game makes clear). Now, we'll never really know if we're just witnessing Willie's orthodox adherance to the LaRussa Bullpen Management Rule 2(a): "Never bring in your 'set-up guy' or your 'closer' during a tie game on the road." Or is 2(a), "Never bring your "closer" into a tie game in a ballpark serving good Brats"? Who can keep this stuff straight?
If I can briefly toot my own horn here, let me note that 6 minutes before Hall went deep in the 10th yesterday, at 5:32 PM, EDT, I jotted down the following, so I'd remember what I wanted to write this morning: "Wagner not in last Tues., in Friday (for work) & then Saturday - he should have been in in the 10th - Willie with the 'Bullpen Rules.'" Now, I'll readily admit, if I reported everything I jotted down you'd conclude not only that I'm a poor prognasticator, but dangerously insane as well. Plus, what's up with that "been in in the 10th" thing? But the point is, we all knew Wagner should have been available to pitch yesterday. But he was not available, having pitched in both Saturday's big win . . . and in Friday's blowout loss.
Had Willie played it differently, different things would have happened, and who knows how it have turned out. But we know how it turned out this past week, and it wasn't good. And that's what happens when managers make poor decisions. Even if they escape the immediate consequences of those moves (read: a loss), they still may pay a few games later. Willie's incorrect decision to keep Wagner out of last Tuesday's game had a negative effect both short-term and long.
The Mets are winning and winning tends to make for good "managerial moves: and losses make for the opposite. But ya know what? Willie's gotta tighten up in this regard.
And no, this isn't lingering disappointment that Julio didn't get in the game. Well, not just lingering disappointment.
posted by Mike at 7:53 AM
1 Comments:
Mike --
I just came across your blog and am really enjoying the hysterical observations about Kaz's fish-face, Floyd's sub-.100 marks, and the like.
Pray tell, what is your background as a Mets fan? You clearly have a lot of insights and passion for the team; how did this relationship evolve, and who are some of your favorite all-time Mets?
I'll take your answer off the air.
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