Wednesday, September 13, 2006

IS HE SURE IT'S NOT 17 PERCENT? OR MAYBE 19?

In today's entry from the "Well, If He's Saying So, It Must Be True" Files, we learn from AP that the President and CEO of Saudi-Arabia's state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. ("Aramco") insists that only 18% of the world's total supply of crude oil has been tapped.

Now there are others in the world who know far more than I do about the science behind Peak Oil theory, as devised by Marion King Hubbert in 1956: Matthew Simmons seems especially credible to me. Also Jim Kunstler & Mike Ruppert, though both allow their personal politics to flavor their analyses in my opinion. Agree or disagree with these fellows, they know more about the issue than I do.

At any rate, color me skeptical when I hear the head of Aramco just come up with a random number, explaining the amount of oil left in the ground. One of Simmons's most compelling points is that those seeking to debunk Peak Oil often say, "It's not true," and then spout forth with numbers, seemingly coming out of nowhere. Or from the same place as the untapped crude.

Finally, if this dude is so certain that the oil's in the ground, why is he begging "explorationists" to find it? I mean, if he knows it's there, why haven't they started drilling for it? Afterall, his product is crude oil. When was the last time you heard a car maker beg the world's "engineers" to keep making autos?

4 Comments:

Blogger Thrillhous said...

I heard that all the untapped oil was north and east of Baghdad, near Tikrit. I'm sure we'll find it real soon.

12:41 PM  
Anonymous Mike said...

I think we're more likely to find Bin Laden and Elvis.

Together.

Jammin' to old R&B tunes, eating peanut butter and banana sandwiches, and picking out sequinned jump suits.

12:56 PM  
Blogger DED said...

the world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves — enough to power the globe at current levels of consumption for another 140 years.

I think Mort would agree that this is bullshit. Btw, has anyone heard from him? His blog's been gone for over a week now and I haven't seen him commenting anywhere.

Anyway, even the guy from ExxonMobil quoted in the article predicted that demand is going to rise by 50% in the coming decade.

I've got to find out if the old wells are filled in with water (I'm pretty sure they are) because one would think that once these giant fields have been emptied that they'd collapse under the weight of the rock from above. The whole Middle East would look like Florida in the 80's: lots of sinkholes.

1:58 PM  
Anonymous Mike said...

DED-

Not sure what's up with Mort. His blog's down, that's for sure.

As to the article, I lean towards Peak Oil, but I don't really know, so I try not to proselytize. But sometimes you can smell the bullshit through the stench of burning fuel from miles away.

This clown's quotation is one of those.

2:06 PM  

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