Wednesday, February 06, 2008

SOME SUPER THOUGHTS ON A NOT-SO SUPER TUESD-- (OH, WHATEVER)

Well, John McCain has really mavericked himself into the front-runner's position. I guess all of America's moderate-to-right gerbils are very pleased.

Thing that scares me, of course, is that Mike "I Don't Heart" Huckabee has emerged as the likely vice-Presidential candidate at this point. Not sure if anyone else has been analyzing that, but he sure seems like the smart play for McCain -- shore up his support in states where he'd otherwise get a run for his money from Hillary: Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, etc.

Plus, wouldn't that help get out the vote among evangelicals who might otherwise sit this one out? Just food for thought.

(So chow down, and regurgitate your own thoughts in the comments.)

Meanwhile, the Dems look to be dug in for a long one. I think Hillary'll hang on, if it's close come convention time, of course she'll win. She's a Clinton, for crissakes! I'm not sure I really understand this whole superdelegate thing, but basically I think it means there are a bunch of reps at the convention who can swing their support to whomever the hell they feel like. Doesn't matter how the voters of their states went.

Is that pretty much it?

Well, Hill seems to have more of them than Obama, and I have little-to-no doubt that most of them'll go her way when the chips are on the felt.

The Maverick vs. Hillary? Ugh, that's ugly.

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5 Comments:

Anonymous Applesaucer said...

Yeah, I'd say that Huckabee is the leading contender for the Rep VP Nominee spot, which is unfortunate (regardless of how much one despises Republicans, it would be nice to see an Evangelical-free ticket for a change, no?).

This is especially unfortunate considering the fact that for the first time since I've been checking, a Republican is actually the plurality favorite for President: McCain's Intrade contract for winning the Presidency last traded at 36.7 to Hillary's 34 (by the way, Obama's is at 29.5 and nobody else is even close).

These prediction markets get it wrong a lot -- and there's loads of time, yet -- but I consider them to be the best approximation of a "point spread" we've got.

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

8:10 AM  
Blogger Mike said...

Was Hillary leading until recently?

8:14 AM  
Anonymous Applesaucer said...

"Was Hillary leading until recently?"

Yes (last time I checked, at least, which was pretty recently).

8:31 AM  
Blogger Rickey Henderson said...

Meh, does anyoen have any hope for the Democratic candidate to be announced before the convention?

As far as McCain goes, well Rush Limbaugh hates him, so he can't be all that bad, right? Pretty sure he's legally dead however,,,

11:18 AM  
Blogger DED said...

Huckabee has emerged as the likely vice-Presidential candidate at this point. Not sure if anyone else has been analyzing that, but he sure seems like the smart play for McCain -- shore up his support in states where he'd otherwise get a run for his money from Hillary: Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, etc.

Plus, wouldn't that help get out the vote among evangelicals who might otherwise sit this one out?


I was thinking the same thing. And I couldn't understand why the pundits were counting out Huckabee already with all those southern states up for grabs. Hello! It's like they forgot that Huckabee is a former minister. They don't call the South the "Bible Belt" for nothing.

Hypothetical Scenario: McCain gets the nomination and picks Huckabee for his VP. Clinton is the Dem nominee. The Right Wing Hate Machine decides that it's ok to vote for McCain now because he'll probably die in office (they'll suggest natural causes but imply assassination would be acceptable) and thus Huckabee will become President. They go back to spewing anti-Hillary noise until McCain wins the election. After that, they go back to spewing "McCain is a Liberal" nonsense in the hopes that one of their Kool Aid drinkers takes him out, thus enabling Huckabee to ascend to the Presidency. At which point, they'll petition him to make Rudy the Veep. Or maybe chant "Bring Back Cheney!"

2:23 PM  

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